US Dollar Forecast for Recovery Will be Put to the Test
Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist
The US Dollar finished the week higher against the Euro and other key counterparts, but a sharply disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report nearly derailed the nascent Greenback recovery through Friday’s close.
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish
- US Dollar may have set an important bottom against the Euro
- US Unemployment Rate hits 26-year high on NFPs disappointment
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing key barometer on domestic economic activity
The US Dollar finished the week higher against the Euro and other key counterparts, but a sharply disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report nearly derailed the nascent Greenback recovery through Friday’s close. The trade-weighted US Dollar Index hit fresh monthly highs near 77.50 just ahead of the release. Immediate declines in the US S&P 500 initially sent the dollar higher, but markets clearly expressed their displeasure with the worse-than-expected payrolls release and sold USD through in subsequent trading. Sudden USD losses complicate our otherwise bullish near-term Dollar forecast, but we continue to forecast further Greenback recovery through near-term trade. Comparatively limited event risk in the days ahead has left volatility expectations lower, but flare-ups in financial market tensions could nonetheless force major moves across USD currency pairs.
Earlier in the week we argued that the US Dollar set an important bottom against the Euro on fairly clear sentiment extremes. US CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that Non-Commercial traders—a group mostly comprised of hedge funds and other large speculators—remained the most net-long the Euro/US Dollar since it traded near 1.6000 in early 2008. Though sentiment can and does remain extreme for extended periods of time, early signs of EURUSD reversal support our calls for a broader US Dollar reversal. Strong correlations between the US Dollar and key risky asset classes nonetheless leave the currency at the throes of the recent upheaval in the S&P 500. It will subsequently be critical to watch for any signs that the recent equity market tumble is the start of a larger decline.
US Dollar traders should almost certainly keep an eye out for abrupt shifts in risk sentiment, but a relatively empty US economic calendar leaves limited scope for major day-to-day shifts. The notable exception is Monday’s US ISM Non-Manufacturing report, which will shed further light on the state of the domestic services industry. According to 2008 estimates, the Services industry accounts for nearly 80 percent of US GDP. Suffice it to say, any noteworthy surprises in the highly-anticipated report could force major moves in the US Dollar and broader financial markets. Indeed, the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey tends to be one of the most market-moving events on release.
Outside of the ISM report, forex traders should keep a look out for a number of important global central bank interest rate decisions. Uncertainty surrounding Australian, British, and European central bank announcements may make for an interesting run of days across key forex pairs. It is near-impossible to predict how markets to react to any of these important announcements, and as such traders should be sure to control risk on open US Dollar positions.
We have seen early signs of a sustained US Dollar reversal. Yet very recent price action has shown markets were not yet willing to push the Greenback materially higher versus key counterparts. The coming week may prove especially important to overall trends in major US Dollar pairs. – DR
Euro: Will Risk Appetite Hold EURUSD Up or Will the ECB Ease a Break?
There are more than a few concerns for fundamental euro traders in the days ahead. Where just a few months ago, the single currency was considered among the best speculatively positioned economies given its optimistic outlook for growth and hawkish bearings; we now see the euro struggling to find its place in a broad spectrum of relative risk and safety.
Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral
- EU receives the results of its own financial stress test and the prognosis is promising
- Euro Zone Unemployment is now at a 10-year high of 9.6%
- German and regional inflation gauges still pitched into negative territory
Just this past week, the EU completed a five-month long stress test of its financial markets; and according to policy officials, the results are promising. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet required the evaluation of the banking system be put up against an “adverse” scenario. In the end, none of those institutions surveyed were expected to see their tier one capital ratios fall below 6 percent (the Basel minimum is 4 percent) even in the worst of conditions. However, skepticism is likely to develop just as surely as it did after the US test. It is reasonable to question why there were only 22 banks for such a broad region and what the methodology they measure risk; but the real concern Is in the 400 billion euros of additional losses the market could sustain under the most extreme conditions. We have already seen 489 billion n losses so far; but other outfits have suggested the region could see far more ahead with the IMF suggesting European banks have disclosed only 40 percent of their losses.
In the near-term, the outlook for growth and interest rates will take center stage. The World Economic Outlook has upgraded its outlook for expansion for the union with 0.3 percent expansion expected in 2010 and a more restrained (than previously expected) 4.2 percent contraction for the currency year. That a sluggish pace when compared to the 1.3 percent growth expected from the US or 2.7 percent positive turn for Japan. These are forecasts that are certainly weighing on the euro now; but data can quickly eat into this discounted scenario. It is worth mentioning that the timely, September PMI composite indicator has reported expansion for two months (after deteriorating since June of 2008). Maintaining the pace of production after inventories build up and facilitating consumer spending will be the keys to sustainable growth. Yet, officials are also looking for a crutch for recovery in a unified “strong dollar” position that could bolster export revenue. In a recent address, Trichet stated blatantly that a healthy greenback was “extremely important.” This can be interpreted indirectly that he is very concerned about the high level of his own currency.
Where growth goes, interest rates will follow; but at this pace, it seems like the hawkish turn from the ECB will be far down the line. Yet, with the market being told that the benchmark will be held well into next year, we have the makings for speculation to gauge the likelihood that we will in fact see a move sooner. Overnight index swaps measured by Credit Suisse price in no chance of a rate hike on Thursday – not a surprise. At the same time, there is a total of 82.8 basis points of firming priced in over the coming year. With the central bank already announcing it was culling its unlimited fund auctions, we already have the first steps towards hikes. This is a policy body that won’t be able to telegraph its intentions to hike with a preceding trimming of abnormal monetary stimulus (like the UK cutting its bond fund); but they will try to be as transparent as possible. And, that is why we will have to absorb everything said after this week’s rate decision. – JK
British Pound: UK Data, BOE Decision Present Breakdown Potential
Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
The British pound was one of the strongest major currencies last week, losing only against the Canadian dollar and ending essentially unchanged versus the US dollar. That said, the moves may have been more of a relief rally than anything else, as the British pound has depreciated 2 percent against the greenback, 4.3 percent against the euro, and almost 5 percent against the Japanese yen over the past month.
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish
- UK GDP was revised to -0.6% in Q2 from -0.7%, annual rate at record low of -5.5%
- Mortgage approvals in the UK eased down to 52,300 in August, indicating lingering pressures in the housing market
- However, Nationwide Building Society said UK house prices rose for the fifth straight month in September
The British pound was one of the strongest major currencies last week, losing only against the Canadian dollar and ending essentially unchanged versus the US dollar. That said, the moves may have been more of a relief rally than anything else, as the British pound has depreciated 2 percent against the greenback, 4.3 percent against the euro, and almost 5 percent against the Japanese yen over the past month. Indeed, a handful of fundamental reports from the nation have been slightly better than expected, such as the 0.9 percent rise in Nationwide house prices, but more often than not, they are countered by contradicting data, such as the drop in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the construction sector to 46.7 in September from 47.7.
One area that has seen significant improvement recently is the services sector. PMI for the UK’s services sector has consistently held above 50 since May, indicating an expansion in activity, and data due to be released on Monday is likely to show a continuation of the trend in September as PMI is projected to rise to a two-year high of 54.5 from 54.1. However, with the unemployment rate in the UK also steadily rising, there are some downside risks for the sector, and consumption as a whole.
The main event risk for the British pound will not come up until Thursday, though, when the Bank of England (BOE) will announce their latest rate decision. The BOE is anticipated to leave their Cash Rate target unchanged at 0.50 percent, but this won’t even be the market-moving part of the announcement. Instead, traders will be looking toward the BOE’s policy statement. This has consistently been the prime “news event” of recent rate decisions. Last month, the BOE indicated a neutral stance as they simply stated they would continue their £175 billion quantitative easing program, and this ultimately led the British pound to rally against the US dollar and euro immediately. A repeat of this statement is likely to trigger a similar reaction from the British pound, but on the other hand, any indication that the program may need to be expanded down the line would weigh very heavily on the currency. That said, such a scenario is highly unlikely. – TB
Japanese Yen to Follow Risk Trends as Prices Test Key Resistance
The Japanese Yen will begin the week ahead at a major trend-defining juncture, with the behavior of risk appetite likely to set the currency’s trajectory.
Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish
- Japan’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Falls, Household Spending Surges
- Business Outlook Improves But Capital Investment Falls Most in 10 Years
- Housing Starts Fall Most in Two Years, Industrial Production as Expected
The Japanese Yen will begin the week ahead at a major trend-defining juncture, with the behavior of risk appetite likely to set the currency’s trajectory. Global equity markets slumped for the second consecutive week amid increasingly mixed economic data capped by September’s disappointing US jobs report. We have long said that the apparent onset of a rebound witnessed over recent months owed mostly to extraordinary expansionary policy measures (both fiscal and monetary) around the world as well as the inventory restocking cycle, arguing that stocks were overvalued at the highest levels relative to earnings since 2003 in a year when global economic growth is set to shrink in real terms for the first time in the post-WWII period. If we are indeed at the cusp of a sobering correction lower that leads stocks lower, the spectrum of risk-correlated investments (commodities, carry trades) are likely to follow, with the Japanese unit rising as traders unwind short-Yen yield-seeking positions. Such an outcome would be tremendously significant from a technical perspective with prices testing major resistance established in January as the worst of the panic that gripped capital markets late last year began to recede. A break below this juncture would open the door for the currency to rise to levels unseen in well over a decade, threatening to send USDJPY below the 80.00 mark for the first time since 1995.
The economic calendar is fairly tame compared to last week’s overload of significant releases. The preliminary estimate of Augusts’ Leading Index are expected to show the metric rose for the sixth consecutive month, pointing to continued moderation in economic growth in the coming 6-9 months from the lows registered in the first quarter. On balance, much of this has already been priced into the exchange rate and is unlikely to produce a significant response from the market, with traders much more sensitive to negative news after seven months of buoyant confidence. The Current Account surplus is set to narrow to 1148.0 billion yen in August from 1265.6 billion in the previous month as exports continue to tumble on lackluster foreign demand. Indeed, last week’s Tankan survey of large manufacturers (who primarily cater to the overseas buyers) revealed firms expect sales to fall -10.5% through the 2009 fiscal year (12 months ending April 2010), more than doubling the drop in FY2008.Source : Dailyfx.com
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