Last week's range: 1.5656 - 1.5908 (Down)
Previous range: 1.5469 - 1.5793 (Up)
Euro/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month high and closed lower last week, giving up a third of the rally between June 13 and July 3. My model went short. The market is on the verge here, after spearing the rising trendline in the non-market on Friday. Only a close below 1.5650 would encourage further weakness.
Below 1.5650, support is at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further supports remain at 1.5575 and 1.5470. Distant support is at 1.5305.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5740. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905 and then at 1.6020. Distant resistance remains at 1.6250.
NEAR-TERM:Mixed with bearish risk
MEDIUM-TERM:Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Last week's range: 105.00 - 106.92 (Mixed)
Previous range: 105.86 - 108.42 (Down)
Jus because dollar/yen got unglued from the 107.95 Gann pivot and slipped, didn't mean it found direction. My model remains short, though, as a double top targeting 105.75 remains in play. Immediate direction comes from the 50-point pivot at 106.75, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Below 106.25, support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is seen at 107.25. Distant resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
>MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Last week's range: 1.9798 - 2.0005 (Down)
Previous range: 1.9587 - 1.9952 (Up)
Sterling/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month high and my model went short. It looks like a bearish reversal on the weekly chart, but I wouldn't get too excited yet, as we need more information. Just like the euro/dollar, cable pierced the rising trendline in extra-thin trading on Friday, but only a close below 1.9785 would encourage more sustained weakness.
Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710. These are followed by 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9560.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9885. The next levels are 1.9940 and 2.0005. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145. Distant resistance still comes at 2.0395.
NEAR-TERM:Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM:Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Last week's range: 1.0113 - 1.0283 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0166 - 1.0493 (Down)
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a 2 ½-month low on Friday and closed higher last week. My model went long, but the pair is only half way through the channel declining since May 8. A close above 1.0325, which is the former trendline rising since March 17, would encourage a more sustainable rally.
So, above 1.0325, resistance now comes at 1.0415 and 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540. Distant resistance remains at 1.0622.
Initial support is at 1.0215. Below 1.0166, support is seen at 1.0113, 1.0065 and .9996. The next big level is .9825. Distant support remains at .9642.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM:Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Canada
Last week's range: 1.0064 - 1.0239 (Up)
Previous range: 1.0049 - 1.0195 (Down)
Dollar/Canada is lacking any direction as it approaches the tip of a triangle. Wait until it breaks out.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.0239. The next level is 1.0285. Above 1.0301 there is resistance at 1.0380. Distant resistance remains between 1.0470 and 1.0485.
Initial support comes at 1.0155. Below 1.0050, support is seen at 1.0015. The next floor is at .9980. Distant support is now pegged at 0.9910.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Euro/yen
Last week's range: 166.10 - 169.13 (Mixed)
Previous range: 166.80 - 169.45 (Mixed)
Euro/yen held below a near 26-year high and closed the second week on the verge of making a bearish reversal. The cross remains heavily overbought and the risk is on the downside is increasing. Again, sell it only on a confirmation.
Immediate support is at 167.20. The next level is at 166.80. This is followed by 165.55. The next level is at 164.95. Below 163.25, distant support remains at 161.45.
Initial resistance comes at 168.12. Above 168.86, there is resistance at 168.45 and 170.00. Distant resistance is seen at 171.55.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Euro/sterling
Last week's range: 0.7871 - 0.8001 (Mixed)
Previous range: 0.7891 - 0.7951 (Mixed)
Euro/sterling traded in another tight range as it approached the tip of a triangle. More information is still needed.
Initial support remains at 0.7870. Below the strong 0.7330 level, support remains at 0.7817. Distant support is at 0.7766.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 0.7933. The next level is 0.7955. Above 0.7970, there are pivot highs at 0.8033 and 0.8100. Distant resistance remains at 0.8155.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Cornelius Luca
http://www.gftforex.com
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