Spending Growth to Stall, Home Sales Down: U.S. Economy Preview

By Shobhana Chandra

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. probably stayed at the weakest pace in six months in January as income growth slowed and Americans struggled with a deepening housing slump, economists said before reports this week.

Spending was up 0.2 percent, matching a gain in December that was the smallest since June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department's Feb. 29 report. Separate figures may show sales of new and previously owned homes fell last month.

Sluggish wage growth threatens to dent consumer spending, the main driver of the economy, and raise expectations for more Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to prevent a recession. Manufacturing is slowing, house values are falling and consumer confidence is waning, other figures may show this week.

``People will be monitoring these reports for a recession scenario versus a slowdown scenario,'' said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``We're skeptical of the story that consumers will pull back en masse. Everyone's pretty much braced for poor numbers in housing.''

Incomes rose 0.2 percent in January, the smallest gain in three months, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.

The income report may also show a price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 0.2 percent for a fourth month, economists in the survey projected. The index probably gained 2.2 percent from January 2007.

Producer Prices

Inflation concerns may be reinforced by the Labor Department's producer price report on Feb. 26. Inflation at the wholesale level jumped 0.3 percent in January, after a drop in December, the Bloomberg survey showed.

Accelerating price pressures give the Fed less room to keep cutting interest rates to ward off a recession. Still, ``we can count on another policy easing by the Fed in March,'' Action Economics' Englund said.

Policy makers last week signaled they're prepared to quickly reverse January's interest-rate cuts, while concluding borrowing costs need to be kept low for now. The Fed lowered the rate by 0.75 percentage point on Jan. 22 in an unscheduled decision and by a half point at the regular meeting Jan. 30.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who has warned policy will have to be ``calibrated'' over the next year to meet both inflation and growth objectives, will testify before Congress on Feb. 27-28 on the central bank's outlook.

Home Sales

One source of concern for the Fed is the worst housing slump in a quarter century. The National Association of Realtors may report tomorrow that January sales of existing homes fell 1.8 percent to a 4.81 million annual rate, the Bloomberg survey median shows. Existing-home purchases account for 85 percent of the market.

New home sales, which account for the rest of the market, dropped 0.7 percent to an annual pace of 600,000 last month, the third consecutive drop, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The Commerce Department will report the figures Feb. 27.

Sales of new homes are viewed as a leading indicator of the market because they are tabulated when a contract is signed. Existing-home sales reflect contract closings, which typically come a month or two later.

The glut of unsold properties is pushing prices lower. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, scheduled for release Feb. 26, may show prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 9.8 percent in December from a year earlier. The decrease, the 12th in a row, was the biggest since the group started keeping year- over-year records in 2001.

GDP Revisions

The housing market ``clearly continues to be in a very difficult position,'' Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Feb. 21.

The Commerce Department's revised figures for gross domestic product on Feb. 28 will reflect the drag from homebuilding. The economy, teetering on the edge of a recession, expanded at an annual rate of 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg survey median shows, faster than the initially reported 0.6 percent pace.

Manufacturing also is becoming more vulnerable to slowing demand, Commerce figures may show on Feb. 27. Orders for durable goods plunged 4 percent in January after surging in December, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.

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Release Period Prior Median
Indicator Date Value Forecast
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Exist Homes Mlns 2/25 Jan. 4.89 4.80
PPI MOM% 2/26 Jan. -0.3% 0.4%
Core PPI MOM% 2/26 Jan. 0.2% 0.2%
PPI YOY% 2/26 Jan. 6.3% 7.2%
Core PPI YOY% 2/26 Jan. 2.0% 2.2%
OFHEO HPI QOQ% 2/26 4Q -0.4% -1.0%
Case Shiller Monthly YO 2/26 Dec. -7.7% -9.8%
Case Shiller Monthly In 2/26 Dec. 188.8 184.7
Case Shiller Quarterly 2/26 4Q 180.5 169.6
Case Shiller Quarterly 2/26 4Q -4.5% -9.4%
Richmond Fed Index 2/26 Feb. -8 -10
Consumer Conf Index 2/26 Feb. 87.9 82.0
ABC Conf Index 2/26 Feb. 25 -37 -39
Mortgage Apps. WOW% 2/27 Feb. 23 -22.6% n/a
Durables Orders MOM% 2/27 Jan. 5.0% -4.0%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 2/27 Jan. 2.3% -1.4%
New Home Sales ,000's 2/27 Jan. 604 600
GDP Annual QOQ% 2/28 1Q P 0.6% 0.7%
Personal Consump. QOQ% 2/28 1Q P 2.0% 2.0%
GDP Prices QOQ% 2/28 1Q P 2.6% 2.6%
Core PCE Prices QOQ% 2/28 1Q P 2.7% 2.7%
Initial Claims ,000's 2/28 Feb. 24 349 350
Cont. Claims ,000's 2/28 Feb. 17 2784 2778
Help Wanted Index 2/28 Jan. 22 21
Pers Inc MOM% 2/29 Jan. 0.5% 0.2%
Pers Spend MOM% 2/29 Jan. 0.2% 0.2%
PCE Deflator YOY% 2/29 Jan. 3.5% 3.5%
Core PCE Prices MOM% 2/29 Jan. 0.2% 0.3%
Core PCE Prices YOY% 2/29 Jan. 2.2% 2.2%
Chicago PM Index 2/29 Feb. 51.5 49.6
U of Mich Conf. Index 2/29 March F 69.6 70.0
NAPM Milwaukee Index 2/29 Feb. 58.0 60.0
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Source : Bloomberg.com